Bearing in mind, that risk itself is similar to taking a journey towards a target you are not sure to reach safely, it is fair to assume that the less knowledge we have about a particular thing we wish to engage in, the greater the uncertainty we will face.

To get the odds in our favour to reach our goal successfully, we need to study the following four points first.

1.What could be a possible cause of derailment of our proposed investment.

2.What are the things that could stand in the way of reaching a successful outcome.

3.What are the valid arguments for, and against, the probability of success or failure.

4.What is the extent of our awareness of the risk we are taking, or are we making a decision under partial ignorance.

Applying these tests before making a decision is important. Since it not easy to know the answers to all the questions, many people do not bother and tend to be guided by their intuition.

To play the forex market by intuition, to back horses by intuition, to play in casinos by intuition, all this of course, is a formula for disaster.

If the more information we have about what we need to know provides a greater chance of success, then we must make it our business to get it. Knowledge and information are the odds you need in your favour. Whatever the investment, it is not prudent to make a decision under ignorance. If you cannot accumulate enough information about the investment you want to make, stay away from that deal and wait for another.

Of course, there are different types of investments, and therefore information and knowledge has to be pertinent to the particular investment.

If we are talking about horses racing, we would need to know about the state of the going, meaning does the horse like soft ground, or hard ground, does it run better on a left hand turn track or a right hand turn track, what distance is it best at, what draw has it got, who is the jockey, what opposition is it running against etc.

When we are talking about a football game, there are equally a series of questions that have to be answered. Are all the star players in the team, are they playing at home,against whom are they playing, and so forth.

Playing the markets is a game based on a great deal of skill, but sometimes there are certain conditions which demand extreme caution, because any amount of skill can be derailed by events not always available for consideration in good time.

Currency markets are vulnerable to a large number of factors which must be taken into account, especially when volatile conditions are present.

One can either study the particular field, or be guided by experts and consultants who like some doctors, can be good, or extra good, but it is still better to take their advice than to do it alone. Of course if you only have a small cold, there is probably no need for a doctor. In the case of a major illness, you turn to the doctor. By the same ruling, if you invest very small money, you tend to use your own brains, but when playing in hundreds of thousands, it is prudent to seek the best help one can get, or certainly gather a great deal of knowledge and information before making a move.

By careful process in gathering as many odds in your favour before firing, you will find that things will turn out more profitable, and certainly less risky.

Precaution is an enemy of risk. Everybody knows that it is wise to take precaution, but not all take it. The few that do all they can, are wealthier and healthier, than the many who tend not to bother.

It is important to try to stay at the ideal weight for your height, age and gender. If you are as little as even just 10% over your optimum weight, you move into a high risk category for hypertension and other blood pressure related heart conditions.

Over 50% of all Americans are classed as being obese. Charities and research groups like the American Heart Association have been trying to find effective ways to reduce this figure. The figures are definitely at a record high, and they are increasing with every year that goes by.

Obesity hypertension is the biggest and most common form of high blood pressure, almost as much as 75% of all U.S. hypertension cases. In 2002 around 310,707 people died as a direct result from obesity hypertension. Most high blood pressure and heart diseases begin with obesity, then lead onto high blood pressure, then move swiftly to severe heart disease and finally resulting in a painful death.

As far as obesity and obesity hypertension is concerned, it does not matter about your family history, age, gender, race or sex. Men and women are affected in the same way and at the same sort of stages in life. Obviously if you keep an eye on your weight, it will result in a reduction of the risks of hypertension. Alternatively, if you stay at a high weight, the risks will carry on increasing.

How do I Know if I am Obese?

The first question to ask should more accurately be asked as “Am I overweight?” Obesity does not just concern how fat you look or just how much you weigh. It mainly refers to your Body Mass Index (BMI). This Index measures the contrast between your weight AND height. A BMI above 30.0 is usually seen as dangerously obese, a score between 25.0 and 29.9 is thought to be overweight, but the optimum BMI score is around 18.5 and 24.9.

If you wish to calculate your own Body Mass Index, take your current weight and divide it by the number you get when you multiply your height in inches by your height in inches again. Then multiply that number by 703 for your BMI. For example, if you are 5′6″ and weigh 165lbs, you would multiply 66″ times 66″ for a total of 4356, then divide 165 by 4356 for a total of 0.0378. Next multiply that by 703 for a BMI equal to 26.6, which may not be life threatening, but is still seen as overweight.

The human emotion of greed has a lot to answer for, especially in the share market. For example, you see a share price going up and up. You want your piece of the action. You jump in right on the peak. How many times have we heard that story? You are holding a share. Perhaps it is a mining share. You think you better not sell it. The price might go higher. And it does. Until one day it stops going up and comes down.

Remember the Tech boom. And the following tech bust. Did greed stop you from taking the money you thought you had made out of tech stocks? Did most of your paper profit evaporate? Are you still holding those next to worthless tech shares? You can blame greed for that one.

You have to teach yourself to buy shares when they are cheap. And to sell them when they are dear. And you have to make sure that you get plenty of practice doing this before you actually put real money into the share market.

But what if I miss out on an up move in the share price? I hear people saying this all the time and it is unfortunate that we are conditioned to see what we have lost and not what we have gained. So the usual answer is, how much have you put into your bank account.

There is no greed or any other form of emotional investing remaining in your investing repertoire.

Reacting emotionally as a result of market action and panicking out of the market regardless of price. Fear of missing out jumping into the market regardless of price.

When man was a cave dweller, in a time long, long ago, it was perfectly reasonable behaviour when he heard the sound of a sabre tooth tiger behind him, to react quickly to that threat and get the hell out of there.

Strange as it may seem, many participants in the share market still behave in exactly the same way.

The reactive behaviour that may have been appropriate and life saving in that dim, dark past but it is simply not appropriate and in fact down right destructive in today’s share market. And many other situations that occur in modern times.

When you react, your focus and field of vision narrow. Your senses are heightened to just what is going on around you in the moment. Your peripheral vision, memory and thought processes are inhibited. You function automatically and without much thought.

Before you enter the market you make a plan in the clear cold light of day. You do that before you go any where near the share market. You use actual, factual long term historic information to come up with your plan. Your planning horizon is large.

In your plan, you cater for all contingencies. You plan for the share price going up, going down or staying about where it is.

You know what you are going to do if the share price goes up, down or sideways. After all, the share price can do nothing more.

And you practice executing the plan sufficient times to make calm and clear disciplined investment decisions your habit, which replaces the bad habit of reaction if you have it. Any you put that profitable practice in place well before you risk a single dollar of your hard earned money on the real share market.

Are you risk taker….and what is the American Dream?

A true entrepreneur is an amazing creature. A true entrepreneur is a real risk taker. It is in the DNA.

There certainly are folks who own companies and are not real risk takers. These are the people that inherited their business or purchased their company from their boss who might be retiring.  These people for the most part just have a job. Acquiring their business is not seen as an opportunity as much as keeping the status quo in terms of their income.

But a true entrepreneur is a risk taker and in no small measure a risk maker.  These folks are mentally working 24 hours a day.

It really doesn’t matter the type of business that a person would want to run or own the possibility of failure is extremely high.  In other words it’s easier to fail in business than it is to succeed.

A huge advantage to living in an open market country is that entrepreneurship will be what drives the economy.  So it makes sense that living in the U.S. should give a person an advantage toward business ownership.  We are constantly told that business ownership is the “American Dream”.  I have never seen it that way.

Here are the reasons that I believe that.

1.  It takes an enormous amount mental energy to start and or run a small business.

2.  It takes a great deal of reserve money to start and or run a small business.

3. It takes a great deal of time to run your own business, and we are not taking about 8-5 job here.

4.  It takes a tremendous amount of patients.

5.  And….it takes a very understanding family.

So what about these things?

Mental energy.

When engaged in a small business, a person’s mind is occupied on the question of “What do I do now?”.  What does one do in terms of marketing, customer retention, banking relationships, inventory funding.  It never stops.  Even when away from the business one’s mind just does not stop working.

Thinking, thinking and thinking. Consuming an enormousness amount mental energy.

Reserve money.

The common rule is to keep about 3 months of operating money in the bank all the time.  This does not always include payroll.  This would be money primarily to pay the receivables, purchase small inventory items and in some cases payroll but payroll really should not be part of this reserve.  It is best to have about 6 months of payroll in reserve.

So who is able to do this?  Not many.  Typically, only mature and well funded businesses are able to do this.  The average small business is operating on a month by month basis and is lucky to have payroll in the bank 6 days before payday much less 6 months.  This would fit the business that has $500,000.00 or less in revenue in any given year.

Time

What’s that right?  Time.  This is really a huge problem facing small business owners.  Kids have problems, marriages break up and all kinds of issues show up when a small business owner spends more time running the company as opposed spending time with the family.

If it is such a big deal then why do people do this.  It really simple.  A business is the single biggest investment next to their home that they will ever have in their life.  And they are running this thing night and day and probably have never run a company before…..therefor the What do I do now rule kicks in.  The questions never stop, the customers need special care, the employees are getting out of hand and the owner is the only person to look after these things.  In short a business owner is consumed with the care and feeding of this business…..no one else is there to do it form them.  So the family is out of luck.

Patients

This unfortunately, most business owners don’t have.  Can’t find it and don’t know what it looks like if they saw it anywhere.  Patients.  They expect their family, friends and banker to have it but they don’t know what it is or what it is supposed to do for them.  It feels better to make a quick decision than to get to a quiet place a work through the issue.  More businesses get in trouble because of a lack of patients than a lack of money.

Understanding family.

This is really quite a luxury.  These people are not with the business even though most small businesses are considered a “mom and pop” business.  When it does include the entire or part of the family this creates it’s own type of stress and problems.  But if there is no family involved in the day to day running of the business then there is a good chance that they won’t understand what the business owner is facing each day.

What they see is a lack of spendable income, lack of quality time at home and they will be the recipient of a great deal of stress and pressure.   This is a blueprint for disaster.

Having an understanding family can happen but it takes a great deal of communication.

So what does all this mean?

Owning a business is NOT the American dream.  It usually turns out to be indentured servitude.  People go broke, families break up and life becomes a real drag.

Why own a company?

When planned out and executed correctly it is the best life that anyone could ever experience.  There will always be issues.  But with the right planning and mind-set then these issues can and will be managed.  It is a wonderful life.

What is the American Dream?  It is having the resources to go where you want to go, with whom you want to go, when you want to go, stay as long as you want and spend what you would like to spend.

The American Dream is having the money and resources to live in a better house, drive a faster car, send the kids to private schools and sleep on a thicker mattress.  In other words, it equals freedom and that is what the American Dream is all about.  Freedom.  I don’t know of any better way to have this freedom than with owning a business.  That is the American Dream.  And what a dream it is!

It is often a good idea to intensely analyze a situation before delving right in. Selling your home for sale by owner is one of these types of situations. Thorough preparations must be made in order to minimize cost and to ensure as smooth a transaction as possible. Mistakes are at times unavoidable, and in most situations they are inevitable, but the important thing to remember is to use caution so the costly mistakes are at least minimized if not completely eliminated.

As with all situations involving a high reward, there is a high risk involved in attempting to sell your home for sale by owner. Caution must taken during each and every step of the way in order to ensure a successful sale with the satisfaction of all parties involved.

When utilizing a real estate agency to sell your home, it will be listed continually on what is called the Multiple Listing Service so the exposure will be constant albeit not attention grabbing. However, when selling your home for sale by owner, it is completely up to you to keep your advertisement fresh and exciting in order to constantly draw potential buyers into showing an interest in your for sale by owner home.

The risk involved here is one where would-be homebuyers might not interested in what your for sale by owner home. This could be due to a number of reasons such as the advertisement is not in a high traffic area and therefore is not getting the type of exposure it could be getting or the ad in the newspaper is not as noticeable as it could be. Maybe this is because of the language used in the ad. Quite possibly the verbiage is simply not captivating enough. This in itself perpetuates your risk of not being able to sell in the time frame you need to sell in.

Usually, a for sale by owner home will sell in about 60-90 days depending on a number of factors, but this is a pretty safe estimate to go with when using a real estate agency. There is no such guarantee when selling your home for sale by owner. It depends solely on the methods you are using to advertise and how much effort you are putting into advertisement.

Oftentimes, if a seller is trying to save money, there is some sort of time constraint as well. This can put unwanted and unneeded pressure on the seller and can cause a lowering of the asking price. A domino effect of inconvenience can easily be created in order to make up for the last inconvenience and this can be a snowballing process!

It is a very worthwhile idea to sit down and seriously look at the risks associated with selling your home for sale by owner. The reward can be great but if this is the case then it must go without saying that the risk is going to be equally great.

Risks, whereas they cannot be eliminated, can be prepared for. It can be a really good idea to sell your home for sale by owner, depending on your specific circumstances and your needs but it is important to remember that risks are present and should be seriously considered before a decision is made.

A trader with a mediocre system and great money management skills will fare better than a trader who has a great system but no handle on his money.
Money management is indispensable to the Foreign Exchange trader.

Regardless of how strong a trading system you have, if you do not apply good money management controls, you will find yourself in trouble.

Dustin Pass, one of the foremost experts on Forex trading says, “An individual trading with proper money management skills will do better in a mediocre trading system than a person trading an excellent system who lacks money management skills.” In his ebook, Guide to Forex Live-on-the-News Trading, Pass lists five essential components to an effective money management program:

1. Currency selection

2. Lot size (how much margin will you use)

3. Stop placement (how much margin will you risk)

4. Entry level (when to enter a trade)

5. Limit (how much money will you make)
Currency Selection

Currency selection is important because it dictates how long your margin will be tied up in a particular trade. If you enter a trade on a slow moving currency, understand that your money will be tied up for a longer period, thereby increasing your risk. You may also hinder your ability to enter another trade since your capital is tied up in the first one.
Set Your Stop Placement

The amount of money you place on a trade is a vital factor, too. If you put too many of your eggs into one basket, you will decrease your ability to diversify properly. In order to choose your lot size, you must identify your maximum allowable risk and your maximum risk per trade. Once you have determined these factors, you will need to set your stop placement.

Stop placement is the act of predefining your level of loss tolerance on a given trade. The successful Forex trader will learn to cut his losses and move on. In the overall scheme, it will save you money…and increase your gains.
Entry Levels

Entry level is based on all of the above. Knowing how much you have to play with on a trade and where the nearest resistance level lies will inform you whether to enter or pass on a given trade. Often, the best trades are the ones you didn’t make!
Allocation

One simple principal must guide your limit level: the possible profit must at least be equal to the accepted risk. Allocation is key. Suppose your system is 75% accurate and you lose on the first 25 trades out of 100 total trades? You will need enough margin to hang in there for the next 75 trades.
Good Risk Management

As Dustin Pass so aptly noted, a trader with a mediocre system and great money management skills will fare better than a trader who has a great system but no handle on his money. There is no substitute for good risk management.

No matter who you are, where you are and what you are doing, there are always going to be risks. Minimizing your risks, for the most part, depends on your judgment.

Losing money in network marketing is a risk but if you learn fast, than you will develop the needed skills and the faster you break even from this business. If you do want to make a comfortable living then you will need to stay in the MLM for the duration. Not setting high enough financial goals will encourage only a part time or half hearted effort which really is going to see a payment of the “part time” income mentality. Others think that if they can find that single opportunity with two to four downlines, which will network build for them, then their conclusion is that they will be “set for life.” There is no getting around it. Becoming a part of a MLM company is hard work. It takes time and lots of effort to realize a dream of $10,000 a day every month vs. $0.01 doubling every day per month.  $10,000 times 30 days equals $300,000. $0.01 doubling daily would product $5,368,709.12 and if there is one more day, the total would be over 10 million.

The first six months are your education months Learning and hands on experience is what is needed in the MLM industry to succeed. Remember…”Rome wasn’t built in a day.” You will need to pace yourself and be aware of your financial limitations. There are questions which you will need to ask of yourself. Can you afford the joining fees or are you prepared to pay for the overheads like gas, food and training materials? How about survival if you don’t make money the first six months? Will you tighten your financial belt or cut down on unnecessary items to make your dream come true? And, last but not least…Is learning a part of your vocabulary.

All of us have to learn something and not all of us have to learn something fast. With network marketing learning fast means an income sooner. Sure there are risks but to some degree, you are in control as to how you will fare when confronted with a risk taking proposition. As was mentioned, minimizing those risks is largely in your hands. By building on your dreams and realizing that it is up to you to make anything happen, than risk management will be put to good use in the network marketing business.

Breast cancer is the most common malignancy in American women.  Approximately one out of eight women will develop breast cancer in their lifetime.  It would be so nice to tell ahead of time which is the unlucky one out of every eight patients.  But there is simply no reliable method to accurately predict the future occurrence of breast cancer in any one individual patient.  Everyone must understand that the individual breast cancer risk calculated by mathematical models merely refers to the group of women that the individual patient belongs to.  To calculate your risk, please refer to my website progressreportoncancer.wordpress.com.

 

The consensus opinion in the field of breast cancer research is that there is no known cause for this most common disease, with the exception of the BRCA gene, which accounts for a very small percentage of breast cancer cases.  While many risk factors for breast cancer have been identified, risk does not equal cause.  In various population studies, some clinically significant risk factors have been identified, including but not limited to first degree family history, atypical ductal hyperplasia (ADH), lobular carcinoma in situ (LCIS), and radiation exposure.  Other population studies have reported “soft” risk factors, such as obesity, alcohol consumption, tobacco use, sedentary lifestyle, hormone replacement therapy, previous benign breast biopsies, age at first childbirth, and others.  However, on an individual basis, there is no reliable method to predict who will develop breast cancer.  Furthermore, there is no way to determine what role, if any, a particular risk factor plays in the development of an individual’s breast cancer, with the exception of a genetic link (BRCA gene).  In an individual woman, identification of specific risk factors is absolutely not the same as identification of any cause or contributing factor to the development of breast cancer.  Therefore, if you should become diagnosed with breast cancer, you should NOT blame yourself.  Sure, you could have eaten more healthily and exercised more, but there was absolutely nothing you could do to guarantee that breast cancer would never happen to you.  The only risk factor that rises to the level of a causative role is the BRCA gene, and most certainly you could not have picked your own biological parents.

 

“It’s tough making predictions, especially about the future”, a statement attributed to many individuals before me.

Managing Risk

Every deal, trade, investment or business must be undertaken on the basis of a strictly applied limited risk approach. That is, you should only be prepared to lose a fixed andlimited amount of money on the investment.

You have no control over what the market will do; you have no control over the share price. Strangely, however, one of the few factors completely in your control is how much you are prepared to lose.

Each time money is invested in a share, the risk being assumed by that investment action must be identified before the investment is made. Once the risk amount has been identified,the next decision is to decide on the method of risk control which will be employed as part of the investment plan. Saratoga’s Safe Investing Method™ uses three alternative risk control methods.

Each investment must also have the potential for profit of several times the risk.By strictly applying this rule for every investment, the overall profits will end up greater than losses incurred.

You never know whether a share investment (or other investment) will profit when you enterinto it. Every investment you undertake must therefore have a risk-to-reward ratio of better

than 1 to 2. Then, even if only half of your investments are winners, you must make money.

It is good practice to target a minimum of 1 to 3 risk-to-reward ratio.

Managing Money Through Diversification

There needs to be a spread of investments (or trades or deals), in order to ensure an overall profit. If you knew which particular investment or share would provide the best return in the future then you could put all of your money into just that one investment and wait for the return. Unfortunately, no one knows the future, so putting all your eggs in one basket is a very high risk strategy.

Any deal, trade, or investment can completely fail. Occasionally one will. Rarely, a bluechip company will go into bankruptcy. These factors are not known up-front at the time of making the investment. If they were, you would not make that investment.

The safeguard for this contingency is to invest only a small percentage of your wealth in any

single investment. This is called diversification. For example, assume you had ten different investments each of equal value, and one of them failed completely, then at worst you have only lost 10% of your wealth. It is probable that you will still make an overall positive return for the year despite this major failure as the other 90% of your wealth continues to work for you.

This is a BIG question.

Should I enter this relationship? Should I marry this man? Should I take a new job? Should I move to a different city?

What if I fail? What if I look stupid? What if I loose money? What if I can’t survive? (If you’re asking this question, it’s probably best NOT to take the risk!)

One of the biggest risks I ever took was marrying Lorenzo. I’d already had ONE failed marriage. What if I had another one? What if he were using me as an entrance fee into the US of A?

All these doubts. All these questions.

So was getting married worth the risk?

Yes.

So far.

Being in a romantic relationship with Lorenzo has taken me to much deeper levels of myself. To my greatest joys and my deepest fears.

And it’s definitely been worth it.

So how do you determine whether to risk or not to risk?

1. To “Ben Franklin”? Or “Dip-Stick”?

My father always said, “If you have a decision to make, do like Ben Franklin…draw a line down the center of the page. On one side list all the advantages. On the other side list the disadvantages. Then see what you’ve got.

“Ben Franklin” is a Masculine approach to decision making. The Masculine thinks about the risk and the consequences of the choice then makes a logical, intelligent decision.

The Feminine approach is to “Dip-Stick”.

When I was deciding whether or not to marry Lorenzo, Dr. Pat Allen suggested I “dip-stick” my feelings.

If I felt like being married to Lorenzo, I’d put a mark under “Yes”. If I didn’t, I’d mark “No”.

After a week (or two) the “Yes” side won. So we got married. (I bet you thought there was more to it?)

So ladies, draw a line down the page and instead of “advantages” and “disadvantages”, write YES or NO. Then check in with your feelings several times a day for a week or so.

Even if both sides start out equally, one side will eventually win over the other.

And the “crazy making” rumination between your head and heart (think, feel, think, feel, think, feel…) will stop.

2. Can You Afford the Price Tag?

If taking the risk didn’t work out, would you survive it?

If you lost your investment, your partner or the job, would the experience be worth it? (I’m not talking about just dollars and cents.)

Would the actual experience be worth it? Would you become a “better” person? Could you learn something valuable? Can you afford the loss of NOT doing it?

When you look back on your life, is this a worthy investment of your money, time, energy or life experience?

If the answer is “Yes”, do it.

I thought DUTY DATING would lead me to my next film project. It didn’t.

But DUTY DATING did lead me to my husband.

And being the “Dating Director”. And meeting many of you. And the opportunity of creating another career outside the (brutal) film industry.

I learned A LOT writing, directing and producing a feature film. The experience was invaluable. I would never trade it.

And DUTY DATING was completed and distributed internationally. (Even my in-laws saw it on Italian TV:))

3. What’s Your Plan B?

I understand many “risk takers” have no Plan B. They say it’s because there is simply NO alternative. Fine. If you gotta have it, you gotta have it, so by all means, go for it. Godspeed.

But for some of us, when unexpectedly Life Happens, it’s nice to have Plan B. If something doesn’t work out the way you want, there’s something to fall back on. Even if the “fall back” isn’t exactly your dream.

When I made the decision to move to LA, I wasn’t sure if I could handle it. After all, I was raised in a small Tennessee town. (A BIG city for me was Knoxville.)

But I knew if I fell flat on my butt…if I lost everything I had…and ended up broke on the street, I could ALWAYS go home. Back to Kingsport, Tennessee. My parents would take me in. It wasn’t my ideal choice (not theirs either). But at least I had a safety net.

And that’s a big comfort. It gives me freedom to take risks.

So I advise having Plan B. Not that you’d ever use it. But knowing it’s there can offer you alternatives. And peace of mind.

Here’s to the Risk Taker in You!